How large a population can the world sustain?
I read an article today which mentioned that the naturalist Sir David Attenborough has become patron of the Optimum Population Trust, a think tank campaigning for global research and awareness of the issue of population growth and the effect it is having on planet earth.
According to the United Nations the global population is expected to grow from 6.8 billion today to 9.1 billion in 2050. Here are a few of the OPT’s conclusions:
- Water demand exceeds supply in nearly half the world’s countries: by 2025 two-thirds of the Earth’s population will live in water-stressed areas.
- The proportion of cultivated land on the planet has increased from 7% to 40% in 300 years, with almost no room left for expansion.
- Oil and natural gas look set to ‘peak’ within a decade or two and it’s doubtful that either nuclear or renewables can fill the gap. (I agree with the first half of that statement but disagree with the second half. I believe solar power has the potential to be an extremely cheap and abundant form of energy in 10-15 years. Although Nuclear Fusion power has its issues as I discussed here recently, I believe it could be a potential solution in the more distant future.)
- If we believe climate change has anthropogenic origins then population growth is not going to help.
- Population is growing at 1 million people every 5 days.
- Humanity is currently using 120-140% of the resources that the Earth can sustainably provide.
- This topic has become too controversial an issue for politicians and environmental groups to address for fear of causing offence. It can sound anti-people, and pro-poverty.
- This isn’t just an issue for the developing world. People in the developed world consume far more resources and emit more pollution than those from the developing world.
- Ultimately the world needs to reduce its population by about half to around 2-3 billion.
Some rather sobering conclusions but I believe they come from solid academic study. How we start to address this problem I do not know. Maybe Obama should wait for his second term to address this issue!
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